Socioeconomic, Demographic, and Environmental Factors May Inform Malaria Intervention Prioritization in Urban Nigeria.

Urban population growth in Nigeria may exceed the availability of affordable housing and basic services, resulting in living conditions conducive to vector breeding and heterogeneous malaria transmission. Understanding the link between community-level factors and urban malaria transmission informs targeted interventions. We analyzed Demographic and Health Survey Program cluster-level data, alongside geospatial covariates, to describe variations in malaria prevalence in children under 5 years of age. Univariate and multivariable models explored the relationship between malaria test positivity rates at the cluster level and community-level factors. Generally, malaria test positivity rates in urban areas are low and declining. The factors that best predicted malaria test positivity rates within a multivariable model were post-primary education, wealth quintiles, population density, access to improved housing, child fever treatment-seeking, precipitation, and enhanced vegetation index. Malaria transmission in urban areas will likely be reduced by addressing socioeconomic and environmental factors that promote exposure to disease vectors. Enhanced regional surveillance systems in Nigeria can provide detailed data to further refine our understanding of these factors in relation to malaria transmission.

Baseline malaria infection status and RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine efficacy.

Background: The only licensed malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01 E , confers moderate protection against symptomatic disease. Because many malaria infections are asymptomatic, we conducted a large-scale longitudinal parasite genotyping study of samples from a clinical trial exploring how vaccine dosing regimen affects vaccine efficacy (VE). Methods: 1,500 children aged 5-17 months were randomized to receive four different RTS,S/AS01 E regimens or a rabies control vaccine in a phase 2b clinical trial in Ghana and Kenya. We evaluated the time to the first new genotypically detected infection and the total number of new infections during two follow-up periods in over 36K participant specimens. We performed a post hoc analysis of VE based on malaria infection status at first vaccination and force of infection. Results: We observed significant and comparable VE (25-43%, 95% CI union 9-53%) against first new infection for all four RTS,S/AS01 E regimens across both follow-up periods (12 and 20 months). Each RTS,S/AS01 E regimen significantly reduced the number of new infections in the 20-month follow-up period (control mean 4.1 vs. RTS,S/AS01 E mean 2.6-3.0). VE against first new infection was significantly higher in participants who were malaria-infected (68%; 95% CI, 50 to 80%) versus uninfected (37%; 95% CI, 23 to 48%) at the first vaccination (P=0.0053) and in participants experiencing greater force of infection between dose 1 and 3 (P=0.059). Conclusions: All tested dosing regimens blocked some infections to a similar degree. Improved VE in participants infected during vaccination could suggest new strategies for highly efficacious malaria vaccine development and implementation. ( ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03276962 ).

Safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of inactivated poliovirus vaccine with or without E.coli double mutant heat-labile toxin (dmLT) adjuvant in healthy adults; a phase 1 randomized study.

BACKGROUND: Inactivated trivalent poliovirus vaccine (IPV) induces humoral immunity, which protects against paralytic poliomyelitis but does not induce sufficient mucosal immunity to block intestinal infection. We assessed the intestinal immunity in healthy adults in Belgium conferred by a co-formulation of IPV with the mucosal adjuvant double mutant Labile Toxin (dmLT) derived from Escherichia coli. METHODS: Healthy fully IPV-vaccinated 18-45-year-olds were randomly allocated to three groups: on Day 1 two groups received one full dose of IPV (n = 30) or IPV + dmLT (n = 30) in a blinded manner, and the third received an open-label dose of bivalent live oral polio vaccine (bOPV types 1 and 3, n = 20). All groups received a challenge dose of bOPV on Day 29. Participants reported solicited and unsolicited adverse events (AE) using study diaries. Mucosal immune responses were measured by fecal neutralization and IgA on Days 29 and 43, with fecal shedding of challenge viruses measured for 28 days. Humoral responses were measured by serum neutralizing antibody (NAb). RESULTS: Solicited and unsolicited AEs were mainly mild-to-moderate and transient in all groups, with no meaningful differences in rates between groups. Fecal shedding of challenge viruses in both IPV groups exceeded that of the bOPV group but was not different between IPV and IPV + dmLT groups. High serum NAb responses were observed in both IPV groups, alongside modest levels of fecal neutralization and IgA. CONCLUSIONS: Addition of dmLT to IPV administered intramuscularly neither affected humoral nor intestinal immunity nor decreased fecal virus shedding following bOPV challenge. The tolerability of the dose of dmLT used in this study may allow higher doses to be investigated for impact on mucosal immunity. Registered on ClinicalTrials.gov - NCT04232943.

Introducing ROTAVAC® to the occupied Palestinian Territories: Impact on diarrhea incidence, rotavirus prevalence and genotype composition.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus infection remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality in children. The introduction of vaccination programs in more than 100 countries has contributed to a decrease in hospitalizations and mortality. This study investigates the epidemiological impact of the rotavirus vaccine ROTAVAC® in the Palestinian Territories, the first country to switch from ROTARIX® to this new vaccine. METHODS: Clinical surveillance data was collected fromchildren younger than 5attendingoutpatient clinics throughout Gaza withdiarrhea between 2015 and 2020. The incidence of all-cause diarrhea was assessed using an interrupted time-series approach. Rotavirus prevalence was determined at the Caritas Baby Hospital in the West Bank usingELISA on stool specimen of children younger than 5with diarrhea. Genotyping was performed on 325 randomly selected rotavirus-positive samples from January 2015 through December 2020 using multiplex PCR analysis. RESULTS: Average monthly diarrhea casesdropped by 16.7% annually fromintroduction of rotavirus vaccination in May 2016 to the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in March 2020 for a total of 53%. Case count declines were maintained afterthe switchto ROTAVAC® in October 2018. Rotavirus positivity in stool samples declined by 67.1% over the same period without change followingthe switch to ROTAVAC®. The distribution of predominant genotypes in rotavirus-positive stool samples changed from a pre-vaccination G1P [8] to G9P[8] and G12P[8] during the ROTARIX® period and G2P[4] after the introduction of ROTAVAC®. CONCLUSION: ROTAVAC® has shown epidemiological impact on par with ROTARIX® after its introduction to the national immunization schedule in the Palestinian Territories. A molecular genotype shift from a pre-vaccination predominance of G1P[8] to a current predominance of G2P[4] requires more long-term surveillance.

Genetic and phenotypic stability of poliovirus shed from infants who received novel type 2 or Sabin type 2 oral poliovirus vaccines in Panama: an analysis of two clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Sabin strains used in oral poliovirus vaccines (OPV) can revert to virulence and, in rare instances, cause disease or generate vaccine-derived strains leading to outbreaks in areas of low immunisation coverage. A novel OPV2 (nOPV2) was designed to stabilise the viral genome against reversion and reduce recombination events that might lead to virulent strains. In this study, we evaluated the genetic and phenotypic stability of shed poliovirus following administration of one dose of monovalent OPV2 (mOPV2) or nOPV2 to infants aged 18-22 weeks. METHODS: In two similarly designed clinical trials (NCT02521974 and NCT03554798) conducted in Panama, infants aged 18-22-weeks, after immunisation with three doses of bivalent OPV (types 1 and 3) and one dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine, were administered one or two doses of mOPV2 or nOPV2. In this analysis of two clinical trials, faecally shed polioviruses following one dose of mOPV2 or nOPV2 were isolated from stools meeting predetermined criteria related to sample timing and viral presence and quantity and assessed for nucleotide polymorphisms using next-generation sequencing. A transgenic mouse neurovirulence test was adapted to assess the effect of the possible phenotypic reversion of shed mOPV2 and nOPV2 with a logistic regression model. FINDINGS: Of the 91 eligible samples, 86 were able to be sequenced, with 72 evaluated in the transgenic mouse assay. Sabin-2 poliovirus reverts rapidly at nucleotide 481, the primary attenuation site in domain V of the 5' untranslated region of the genome. There was no evidence of neurovirulence-increasing polymorphisms in domain V of shed nOPV2. Reversion of shed Sabin-2 virus corresponded with unadjusted paralysis rates of 47·6% at the 4 log10 50% cell culture infectious dose (CCID50) and 76·7% at the 5 log10 CCID50 inoculum levels, with rates of 2·8% for 4 log10 CCID50 and 11·8% for 5 log10 CCID50 observed for shed nOPV2 samples. The estimated adjusted odds ratio at 4·5 log10 of 0·007 (95% CI 0·002-0·023; p<0·0001) indicates significantly reduced odds of mouse paralysis from virus obtained from nOPV2 recipients compared with mOPV2 recipients. INTERPRETATION: The data indicate increased genetic stability of domain V of nOPV2 relative to mOPV2, with significantly lower neurovirulence of shed nOPV2 virus compared with shed mOPV2. While this vaccine is currently being deployed under an emergency use listing, the data on the genetic stability of nOPV2 will support further regulatory and policy decision-making regarding use of nOPV2 in outbreak responses. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Genetic Characterization of Novel Oral Polio Vaccine Type 2 Viruses During Initial Use Phase Under Emergency Use Listing - Worldwide, March-October 2021.

The emergence and international spread of neurovirulent circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) across multiple countries in Africa and Asia in recent years pose a major challenge to the goal of eradicating all forms of polioviruses. Approximately 90% of all cVDPV outbreaks are caused by the type 2 strain of the Sabin vaccine, an oral live, attenuated vaccine; cVDPV outbreaks typically occur in areas of persistently low immunization coverage (1). A novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2), produced by genetic modification of the type 2 Sabin vaccine virus genome (2), was developed and evaluated through phase I and phase II clinical trials during 2017-2019. nOPV2 was demonstrated to be safe and well-tolerated, have noninferior immunogenicity, and have superior genetic stability compared with Sabin monovalent type 2 (as measured by preservation of the primary attenuation site [domain V in the 5' noncoding region] and significantly lower neurovirulence of fecally shed vaccine virus in transgenic mice) (3-5). These findings indicate that nOPV2 could be an important tool in reducing the risk for generating vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) and the risk for vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis cases. Based on the favorable preclinical and clinical data, and the public health emergency of international concern generated by ongoing endemic wild poliovirus transmission and cVDPV type 2 outbreaks, the World Health Organization authorized nOPV2 for use under the Emergency Use Listing (EUL) pathway in November 2020, allowing for its first use for outbreak response in March 2021 (6). As required by the EUL process, among other EUL obligations, an extensive plan was developed and deployed for obtaining and monitoring nOPV2 isolates detected during acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance, environmental surveillance, adverse events after immunization surveillance, and targeted surveillance for adverse events of special interest (i.e., prespecified events that have the potential to be causally associated with the vaccine product), during outbreak response, as well as through planned field studies. Under this monitoring framework, data generated from whole-genome sequencing of nOPV2 isolates, alongside other virologic data for isolates from AFP and environmental surveillance systems, are reviewed by the genetic characterization subgroup of an nOPV working group of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. Global nOPV2 genomic surveillance during March-October 2021 confirmed genetic stability of the primary attenuating site. Sequence data generated through this unprecedented global effort confirm the genetic stability of nOPV2 relative to Sabin 2 and suggest that nOPV2 will be an important tool in the eradication of poliomyelitis. nOPV2 surveillance should continue for the duration of the EUL.

Safety and immunogenicity of an egg-based inactivated Newcastle disease virus vaccine expressing SARS-CoV-2 spike: Interim results of a randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2 trial in Vietnam.

Production of affordable coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in low- and middle-income countries is needed. NDV-HXP-S is an inactivated egg-based Newcastle disease virus (NDV) vaccine expressing the spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Wuhan-Hu-1. The spike protein was stabilized and incorporated into NDV virions by removing the polybasic furin cleavage site, introducing the transmembrane domain and cytoplasmic tail of the fusion protein of NDV, and introducing six prolines for stabilization in the prefusion state. Vaccine production and clinical development was initiated in Vietnam, Thailand, and Brazil. Here the interim results from the first stage of the randomized, dose-escalation, observer-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2 trial conducted at the Hanoi Medical University (Vietnam) are presented. Healthy adults aged 18-59 years, non-pregnant, and with self-reported negative history for SARS-CoV-2 infection were eligible. Participants were randomized to receive one of five treatments by intramuscular injection twice, 28 days apart: 1 µg +/- CpG1018 (a toll-like receptor 9 agonist), 3 µg alone, 10 µg alone, or placebo. Participants and personnel assessing outcomes were masked to treatment. The primary outcomes were solicited adverse events (AEs) during 7 days and subject-reported AEs during 28 days after each vaccination. Investigators further reviewed subject-reported AEs. Secondary outcomes were immunogenicity measures (anti-spike immunoglobulin G [IgG] and pseudotyped virus neutralization). This interim analysis assessed safety 56 days after first vaccination (day 57) in treatment-exposed individuals and immunogenicity through 14 days after second vaccination (day 43) per protocol. Between March 15 and April 23, 2021, 224 individuals were screened and 120 were enrolled (25 per group for active vaccination and 20 for placebo). All subjects received two doses. The most common solicited AEs among those receiving active vaccine or placebo were all predominantly mild and included injection site pain or tenderness (<58%), fatigue or malaise (<22%), headache (<21%), and myalgia (<14%). No higher proportion of the solicited AEs were observed for any group of active vaccine. The proportion reporting vaccine-related AEs during the 28 days after either vaccination ranged from 4% to 8% among vaccine groups and was 5% in controls. No vaccine-related serious adverse event occurred. The immune response in the 10 µg formulation group was highest, followed by 1 µg + CpG1018, 3 µg, and 1 µg formulations. Fourteen days after the second vaccination, the geometric mean concentrations (GMC) of 50% neutralizing antibody against the homologous Wuhan-Hu-1 pseudovirus ranged from 56.07 IU/mL (1 µg, 95% CI 37.01, 84.94) to 246.19 IU/mL (10 µg, 95% CI 151.97, 398.82), with 84% to 96% of vaccine groups attaining a ≥ 4-fold increase over baseline. This was compared to a panel of human convalescent sera (N = 29, 72.93 95% CI 33.00-161.14). Live virus neutralization to the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of concern was reduced but in line with observations for vaccines currently in use. Since the adjuvant has shown modest benefit, GMC ratio of 2.56 (95% CI, 1.4-4.6) for 1 µg +/- CpG1018, a decision was made not to continue studying it with this vaccine. NDV-HXP-S had an acceptable safety profile and potent immunogenicity. The 3 µg dose was advanced to phase 2 along with a 6 µg dose. The 10 µg dose was not selected for evaluation in phase 2 due to potential impact on manufacturing capacity. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04830800.

Safety and immunogenicity of an inactivated recombinant Newcastle disease virus vaccine expressing SARS-CoV-2 spike: Interim results of a randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 1 trial.

Background: Production of affordable coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in low- and middle-income countries is needed. NDV-HXP-S is an inactivated egg-based recombinant Newcastle disease virus vaccine expressing the spike (S) protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It's being developed by public sector manufacturers in Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil; herein are initial results from Thailand. Methods: This phase 1 stage of a randomised, dose-escalation, observer-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2 trial was conducted at the Vaccine Trial Centre, Mahidol University (Bangkok). Healthy males and non-pregnant females, aged 18-59 years and negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, were eligible. Participants were randomised to receive one of six treatments by intramuscular injection twice, 28 days apart: 1 µg, 1 µg+CpG1018 (a toll-like receptor 9 agonist), 3 µg, 3 µg+CpG1018, 10 µg, or placebo. Participants and personnel assessing outcomes were masked to treatment. The primary outcomes were solicited and spontaneously reported adverse events (AEs) during 7 and 28 days after each vaccination, respectively. Secondary outcomes were immunogenicity measures (anti-S IgG and pseudotyped virus neutralisation). An interim analysis assessed safety at day 57 in treatment-exposed individuals and immunogenicity through day 43 per protocol. ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04764422). Findings: Between March 20 and April 23, 2021, 377 individuals were screened and 210 were enroled (35 per group); all received dose one; five missed dose two. The most common solicited AEs among vaccinees, all predominantly mild, were injection site pain (<63%), fatigue (<35%), headache (<32%), and myalgia (<32%). The proportion reporting a vaccine-related AE ranged from 5·7% to 17·1% among vaccine groups and was 2·9% in controls; there was no vaccine-related serious adverse event. The 10 µg formulation's immunogenicity ranked best, followed by 3 µg+CpG1018, 3 µg, 1 µg+CpG1018, and 1 µg formulations. On day 43, the geometric mean concentrations of 50% neutralising antibody ranged from 122·23 international units per mL (IU/mL; 1 µg, 95% confidence interval (CI) 86·40-172·91) to 474·35 IU/mL (10 µg, 95% CI 320·90-701·19), with 93·9% to 100% of vaccine groups attaining a ≥ 4-fold increase over baseline. Interpretation: NDV-HXP-S had an acceptable safety profile and potent immunogenicity. The 3 µg and 3 µg+CpG1018 formulations advanced to phase 2. Funding: National Vaccine Institute (Thailand), National Research Council (Thailand), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institutes of Health (USA).

Evaluating the Impact of Programmatic Mass Drug Administration for Malaria in Zambia Using Routine Incidence Data.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the Zambian National Malaria Elimination Centre started programmatic mass drug administration (pMDA) campaigns with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine as a malaria elimination tool in Southern Province. Two rounds were administered, 2 months apart (coverage 70% and 57%, respectively). We evaluated the impact of 1 year of pMDA on malaria incidence using routine data. METHODS: We conducted an interrupted time series with comparison group analysis on monthly incidence data collected at the health facility catchment area (HFCA) level, with a negative binomial model using generalized estimating equations. Programmatic mass drug administration was conducted in HFCAs with greater than 50 cases/1000 people per year. Ten HFCAs with incidence rates marginally above this threshold (pMDA group) were compared with 20 HFCAs marginally below (comparison group). RESULTS: The pMDA HFCAs saw a 46% greater decrease in incidence at the time of intervention than the comparison areas (incidence rate ratio = 0.536; confidence interval = 0.337-0.852); however, incidence increased toward the end of the season. No HFCAs saw a transmission interruption. CONCLUSIONS: Programmatic mass drug administration, implemented during 1 year with imperfect coverage in low transmission areas with suboptimal vector control coverage, significantly reduced incidence. However, elimination will require additional tools. Routine data are important resources for programmatic impact evaluations and should be considered for future analyses.

A Phase 2a randomized, single-center, double-blind, placebo-controlled study to evaluate the safety and preliminary efficacy of oral iOWH032 against cholera diarrhea in a controlled human infection model.

Cholera remains a major cause of infectious diarrhea globally. Despite the increased availability of cholera vaccines, there is still an urgent need for other effective interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality. Furthermore, increased prevalence of antibiotic-resistant Vibrio cholerae threatens the use of many drugs commonly used to treat cholera. We developed iOWH032, a synthetic small molecule inhibitor of the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator chloride channel, as an antisecretory, host-directed therapeutic for cholera. In the study reported here, we tested iOWH032 in a Phase 2a cholera controlled human infection model. Forty-seven subjects were experimentally infected with V. cholerae El Tor Inaba strain N16961 in an inpatient setting and randomized to receive 500 mg iOWH032 or placebo by mouth every 8 hours for 3 days to determine the safety and efficacy of the compound as a potential treatment for cholera. We found that iOWH032 was generally safe and achieved a mean (± standard deviation) plasma level of 4,270 ng/mL (±2,170) after 3 days of oral dosing. However, the median (95% confidence interval) diarrheal stool output rate for the iOWH032 group was 25.4 mL/hour (8.9, 58.3), compared to 32.6 mL/hour (15.8, 48.2) for the placebo group, a reduction of 23%, which was not statistically significant. There was also no significant decrease in diarrhea severity and number or frequency of stools associated with iOWH032 treatment. We conclude that iOWH032 does not merit future development for treatment of cholera and offer lessons learned for others developing antisecretory therapeutic candidates that seek to demonstrate proof of principle in a cholera controlled human infection model study. Trial registration: This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT04150250.

Safety and Immunogenicity of an Inactivated Recombinant Newcastle Disease Virus Vaccine Expressing SARS-CoV-2 Spike: Interim Results of a Randomised, Placebo-Controlled, Phase 1/2 Trial.

BACKGROUND: Production of affordable coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in low- and middle-income countries is needed. NDV-HXP-S is an inactivated egg-based Newcastle disease virus vaccine expressing the spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It's being developed in Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil; herein are initial results from Thailand. METHODS: This phase 1 stage of a randomised, dose-escalation, observer-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2 trial was conducted at the Vaccine Trial Centre, Mahidol University (Bangkok). Healthy adults aged 18-59 years, non-pregnant and negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were eligible. Participants were block randomised to receive one of six treatments by intramuscular injection twice, 28 days apart: 1 µg±CpG1018 (a toll-like receptor 9 agonist), 3 µg±CpG1018, 10 µg, or placebo. Participants and personnel assessing outcomes were masked to treatment. The primary outcomes were solicited and spontaneously reported adverse events (AEs) during 7 and 28 days after each vaccination, respectively. Secondary outcomes were immunogenicity measures (anti-S IgG and pseudotyped virus neutralisation). An interim analysis assessed safety at day 57 in treatment-exposed individuals and immunogenicity through day 43 per protocol. ClinicalTrials.gov ( NCT04764422 ). FINDINGS: Between March 20 and April 23, 2021, 377 individuals were screened and 210 were enrolled (35 per group); all received dose one; five missed dose two. The most common solicited AEs among vaccinees, all predominantly mild, were injection site pain (<63%), fatigue (<35%), headache (<32%), and myalgia (<32%). The proportion reporting a vaccine-related AE ranged from 5·7% to 17·1% among vaccine groups and was 2·9% in controls; there was no vaccine-related serious adverse event. The 10 µg formulation's immunogenicity ranked best, followed by 3 µg+CpG1018, 3 µg, 1 µg+CpG1018, and 1 µg formulations. On day 43, the geometric mean concentrations of 50% neutralising antibody ranged from 122·23 IU/mL (1 µg, 95% CI 86·40-172·91) to 474·35 IU/mL (10 µg, 95% CI 320·90-701·19), with 93·9% to 100% of vaccine groups attaining a ≥4-fold increase over baseline. INTERPRETATION: NDV-HXP-S had an acceptable safety profile and potent immunogenicity. The 3 µg and 3 µg+CpG1018 formulations advanced to phase 2. FUNDING: National Vaccine Institute (Thailand), National Research Council (Thailand), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institutes of Health (USA).

Validation of the Micronutrient and Environmental Enteric Dysfunction Assessment Tool and evaluation of biomarker risk factors for growth faltering and vaccine failure in young Malian children.

Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is an intestinal disorder common among children in low-resource settings and is associated with increased risk of growth stunting, cognitive deficits, and reduced oral vaccine immunogenicity. The Micronutrient and EED Assessment Tool (MEEDAT) is a multiplexed immunoassay that measures biomarkers previously associated with child growth faltering and/or oral vaccine immunogenicity: intestinal fatty acid-binding protein (I-FABP), soluble CD14 (sCD14), insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), and fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21). MEEDAT also measures systemic inflammation (α1-acid glycoprotein, C-reactive protein), ferritin, soluble transferrin receptor, retinol binding protein 4, thyroglobulin, and Plasmodium falciparum antigenemia (histidine-rich protein 2). The performance of MEEDAT was compared with commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) using 300 specimens from Malian infant clinical trial participants. Regression methods were used to test if MEEDAT biomarkers were associated with seroconversion to meningococcal A conjugate vaccine (MenAV), yellow fever vaccine (YFV), and pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (PRV) after 28 days, or with growth faltering over 12 weeks. The Pearson correlations between the MEEDAT and ELISA results were 0.97, 0.86, 0.80, and 0.97 for serum I-FABP, sCD14, IGF-1, and FGF21, respectively. There were significant associations between I-FABP concentration and the probability of PRV IgG seroconversion and between IGF-1 concentration and the probability of YFV seroconversion. In multivariable models neither association remained significant, however there was a significant negative association between AGP concentration and YFV seroconversion. GLP-2 and sCD14 concentrations were significantly negatively associated with 12-week change in weight-for-age z-score and weight-for-height z-score in multivariable models. MEEDAT performed well in comparison to commercially-available ELISAs for the measurement of four analytes for EED and growth hormone resistance. Adoption of MEEDAT in low-resource settings could help accelerate the identification of interventions that prevent or treat child stunting and interventions that boost the immunogenicity of child vaccinations.

Impact of state weights on national vaccination coverage estimates from household surveys in Nigeria.

National vaccination coverage estimates from household surveys are widely used in monitoring and planning of immunization programs. In Nigeria, survey-reported national coverage estimates have shown large fluctuations in the past few years. In this paper, we examine the impact of state-level survey weighting on Nigeria's national vaccination coverage estimation. In particular, we focus three vaccination-related outcomes among children aged 12-23 months: the coverage of the third dose of diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus vaccine (DPT3); the coverage of the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1); and the availability rate of home-based vaccination record (HBR). We compare the sample selection and weight assignment of three major survey programs in Nigeria, and show that considerable portions of the changes in survey-reported national coverage estimates can be explained by shifts in state-level weights. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of state weighting method in estimating aggregated national coverage figures and provides important context for interpreting changes in coverage estimates between surveys in the future.

Is the positive association between middle-income and rich household wealth and adult sub-Saharan African women's overweight status modified by the level of education attainment? A cross-sectional study of 22 countries.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies show a positive association between household wealth and overweight in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries; however, the manner in which this relationship differs in the presence of educational attainment has not been well-established. This study examined the multiplicative effect modification of educational attainment on the association between middle-income and rich household wealth and overweight status among adult females in 22 SSA countries. We hypothesized that household wealth was associated with a greater likelihood of being overweight among middle income and rich women with lower levels of educational attainment compared to those with higher levels of educational attainment. METHODS: Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 2006 to 2016 for women aged 18-49 years in SSA countries were used for the study. Overweight was defined as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/m2. Household wealth index tertile was the exposure and educational attainment, the effect modifier. Potential confounders included age, ethnicity, place of residence, and parity. Descriptive analysis was conducted, and separate logistic regression models were fitted for each of the 22 SSA countries to compute measures of effect modification and 95% confidence intervals. Analysis of credibility (AnCred) methods were applied to assess the intrinsic credibility of the study findings and guide statistical inference. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight ranged from 12.6% in Chad to 56.6% in Swaziland. Eighteen of the 22 SSA countries had measures of effect modification below one in at least one wealth tertile. This included eight of the 12 low-income countries and all 10 middle income countries. This implied that the odds of overweight were greater among middle-income and rich women with lower levels of educational attainment than those with higher educational attainment. On the basis of the AnCred analysis, it was found that the majority of the study findings across the region provided some support for the study hypothesis. CONCLUSIONS: Women in higher wealth strata and with lower levels of educational attainment appear to be more vulnerable to overweight compared to those in the same wealth strata but with higher levels of educational attainment in most low- and middle- income SSA countries.

Effect Modification by Baseline Mortality in the MORDOR Azithromycin Trial.

We examined whether baseline mortality risk, as a function of child age and site, modified the azithromycin mortality-reduction effect in the Macrolide Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) clinical trial. We used the Cox proportional hazards model with an interaction term. Three models were examined representing three sources for the baseline-risk covariate: two using sources external to MORDOR and the third leveraging data within MORDOR. All three models provided moderate evidence for the effect becoming stronger with increasing baseline mortality (P = 0.02, 0.02, and 0.07, respectively) at the rate of approximately 6-12% additional mortality reduction per doubling of baseline mortality. Etiological and programmatic implications of these findings are discussed.

Sub-national levels and trends in contraceptive prevalence, unmet need, and demand for family planning in Nigeria with survey uncertainty.

BACKGROUND: Ambitious global goals have been established to provide universal access to affordable modern contraceptive methods. To measure progress toward such goals in populous countries like Nigeria, it's essential to characterize the current levels and trends of family planning (FP) indicators such as unmet need and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR). Moreover, the substantial heterogeneity across Nigeria and scale of programmatic implementation requires a sub-national resolution of these FP indicators. The aim of this study is to estimate the levels and trends of FP indicators at a subnational scale in Nigeria utilizing all available data and accounting for survey design and uncertainty. METHODS: We utilized all available cross-sectional survey data from Nigeria including the Demographic and Health Surveys, Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, National Nutrition and Health Surveys, and Performance, Monitoring, and Accountability 2020. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporates all of the individual level data from each survey instrument, accounts for survey uncertainty, leverages spatio-temporal smoothing, and produces probabilistic estimates with uncertainty intervals. RESULTS: We estimate that overall rates and trends of mCPR and unmet need have remained low in Nigeria: the average annual rate of change for mCPR by state is 0.5% (0.4%,0.6%) from 2012-2017. Unmet need by age-parity demographic groups varied significantly across Nigeria; parous women express much higher rates of unmet need than nulliparous women. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the estimates and trends of FP indicators at a subnational resolution in Nigeria is integral to inform programmatic decision-making. We identify age-parity-state subgroups with large rates of unmet need. We also find conflicting trends by survey instrument across a number of states. Our model-based estimates highlight these inconsistencies, attempt to reconcile the direct survey estimates, and provide uncertainty intervals to enable interpretation of model and survey estimates for decision-making.

Assessing the sensitivity of the polio environmental surveillance system.

BACKGROUND: The polio environmental surveillance (ES) system has been an incredible tool for advancing polio eradication efforts because of its ability to highlight the spatial and temporal extent of poliovirus circulation. While ES often outperforms, or is more sensitive than AFP surveillance, the sensitivity of the ES system has not been well characterized. Fundamental uncertainty of ES site sensitivity makes it difficult to interpret results from ES, particularly negative results. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To study ES sensitivity, we used data from Afghanistan and Pakistan to examine the probability that each ES site detected the Sabin 1, 2, or 3 components of the oral polio vaccine (OPV) as a function of virus prevalence within the same district (estimated from AFP data). Accounting for virus prevalence is essential for estimating site sensitivity because Sabin detection rates should vary with prevalence-high immediately after supplemental immunization activities (SIAs), but low in subsequent months. We found that most ES sites in Pakistan and Afghanistan are highly sensitive for detecting poliovirus relative to AFP surveillance in the same districts. For example, even when Sabin poliovirus is at low prevalence of ~0.5-3% in AFP surveillance, most ES sites have ~34-50% probability of detecting Sabin. However, there was considerable variation in ES site sensitivity and we flagged several sites for re-evaluation based on low sensitivity rankings and low wild polio virus detection rates. In these areas, adding new sites or modifying collection methods in current sites could improve sensitivity of environmental surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: Relating ES detections to virus prevalence significantly improved our ability to evaluate site sensitivity compared to evaluations based solely on ES detection rates. To extend our approach to new sites and regions, we provide a preliminary framework for relating ES and AFP detection rates, and descriptions of how detection rates might relate to SIAs and natural seasonality.

The risk of type 2 oral polio vaccine use in post-cessation outbreak response.

BACKGROUND: Wild type 2 poliovirus was last observed in 1999. The Sabin-strain oral polio vaccine type 2 (OPV2) was critical to eradication, but it is known to revert to a neurovirulent phenotype, causing vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis. OPV2 is also transmissible and can establish circulating lineages, called circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs), which can also cause paralytic outbreaks. Thus, in April 2016, OPV2 was removed from immunization activities worldwide. Interrupting transmission of cVDPV2 lineages that survive cessation will require OPV2 in outbreak response, which risks seeding new cVDPVs. This potential cascade of outbreak responses seeding VDPVs, necessitating further outbreak responses, presents a critical risk to the OPV2 cessation effort. METHODS: The EMOD individual-based disease transmission model was used to investigate OPV2 use in outbreak response post-cessation in West African populations. A hypothetical outbreak response in northwest Nigeria is modeled, and a cVDPV2 lineage is considered established if the Sabin strain escapes the response region and continues circulating 9 months post-response. The probability of this event was investigated in a variety of possible scenarios. RESULTS: Under a broad range of scenarios, the probability that widespread OPV2 use in outbreak response (~2 million doses) establishes new cVDPV2 lineages in this model may exceed 50% as soon as 18 months or as late as 4 years post-cessation. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of a cycle in which outbreak responses seed new cVDPV2 lineages suggests that OPV2 use should be managed carefully as time from cessation increases. It is unclear whether this risk can be mitigated in the long term, as mucosal immunity against type 2 poliovirus declines globally. Therefore, current programmatic strategies should aim to minimize the possibility that continued OPV2 use will be necessary in future years: conducting rapid and aggressive outbreak responses where cVDPV2 lineages are discovered, maintaining high-quality surveillance in all high-risk settings, strengthening the use of the inactivated polio vaccine as a booster in the OPV2-exposed and in routine immunization, and gaining access to currently inaccessible areas of the world to conduct surveillance.

Spatial model for risk prediction and sub-national prioritization to aid poliovirus eradication in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan is one of only three countries where poliovirus circulation remains endemic. For the Pakistan Polio Eradication Program, identifying high risk districts is essential to target interventions and allocate limited resources. METHODS: Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework we developed a spatial Poisson hurdle model to jointly model the probability of one or more paralytic polio cases, and the number of cases that would be detected in the event of an outbreak. Rates of underimmunization, routine immunization, and population immunity, as well as seasonality and a history of cases were used to project future risk of cases. RESULTS: The expected number of cases in each district in a 6-month period was predicted using indicators from the previous 6-months and the estimated coefficients from the model. The model achieves an average of 90% predictive accuracy as measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, for the past 3 years of cases. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of poliovirus has decreased dramatically in many of the key reservoir areas in Pakistan. The results of this model have been used to prioritize sub-national areas in Pakistan to receive additional immunization activities, additional monitoring, or other special interventions.

Evaluating cessation of the type 2 oral polio vaccine by modeling pre- and post-cessation detection rates.

The globally synchronized removal of the attenuated Sabin type 2 strain from the oral polio vaccine (OPV) in April 2016 marked a major change in polio vaccination policy. This change will provide a significant reduction in the burden of vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP), but may increase the risk of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) outbreaks during the transition period. This risk can be monitored by tracking the disappearance of Sabin-like type 2 (SL2) using data from the polio surveillance system. We studied SL2 prevalence in 17 countries in Africa and Asia, from 2010 to 2016 using acute flaccid paralysis surveillance data. We modeled the peak and decay of SL2 prevalence following mass vaccination events using a beta-binomial model for the detection rate, and a Ricker function for the temporal dependence. We found type 2 circulated the longest of all serotypes after a vaccination campaign, but that SL2 prevalence returned to baseline levels in approximately 50days. Post-cessation model predictions identified 19 anomalous SL2 detections outside of model predictions in Afghanistan, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and western Africa. Our models established benchmarks for the duration of SL2 detection after OPV2 cessation. As predicted, SL2 detection rates have plummeted, except in Nigeria where OPV2 use continued for some time in response to recent cVDPV2 detections. However, the anomalous SL2 detections suggest specific areas that merit enhanced monitoring for signs of cVDPV2 outbreaks.